Failed payment recovery calculator

The estimate starts from your monthly recurring Mastercard declines and the share of them that are insufficient-funds declines. Mastercard's data puts that share at around 60 percent for recurring payments, which is the default. It then removes the declines your existing retries already recover.

Of the remaining insufficient-funds declines, the model assumes 45 percent receive a RETRY_NOW alert during the monitoring window, consistent with Mastercard's indicative analysis of a month of merchant decline traffic, and that 75 percent of alerted retries approve. Both assumptions are adjustable under Advanced assumptions.

Fees are estimated at the standard 2.5 percent of alerted transaction value with the $100 monthly minimum, and no volume discount is applied, so the net figure is deliberately conservative. Usage is charged per alert issued whether or not the retry approves; the model reflects that.

The result is an illustration, not a forecast. Actual recovery depends on your card mix, issuer behaviour, transaction territory and how quickly you act on each alert.

Reading the results

• Payments recovered per month: alerted retries that approve.
• Monthly recovered revenue, before fees: those approvals multiplied by your average declined value.
• Our fees: usage on every alert, or the $100 minimum if higher.
• Net and annual figures: revenue less fees, and that figure over twelve months.
• ROI: recovered revenue divided by fees.

To understand where the declines come from in the first place, read the guide to decline code 51 or the payment retry guide.